Steven Blockmans, Senior Research Fellow and Head of EU Foreign Policy Unit, Centre for European Policy Studies
Roger Casale, Director, New Europeans AISBL
The specter of a full-blown break-up of the European Union is a recurrent theme in the political discourse of European crises. It was invoked at the height of the Eurozone crisis, during the migration crisis, in the aftermath of UK’s Brexit referendum, and, most recently, in the context of French presidential elections. But what exactly would it entail? Could it unfold in a sudden and uncontrollable chain of events, or is a more drawn-out process of fragmentation and hollowing-out the greater risk? Would break-up of the Eurozone or the Schengen area necessarily lead to the demise of the EU as a whole? In such an event, which parts of the institutional and legal edifice are most likely to remain standing? What strategic and regional constellations – for example, a northern bloc around Germany – are likely to emerge in a post-breakup scenario?